October 13, 2026

Sports prediction platform Novig has made recent headlines for its controversial advert featuring American actress, Sydney Sweeney. The ad has drawn criticism for what has been viewed by some as a provocative approach that objectifies and undermines women in sports. But what exactly are prediction markets, and could an advertisement like this survive regulatory scrutiny in the UK?

What are prediction markets?

Novig is a US-based sports prediction market. Users trade on the outcome of sporting events, such as which team will win a match or tournament. In Great Britain, prediction market operators (except for those related to financial or climatic events which fall under FCA oversight) are likely to be considered ‘betting intermediaries’ and will require a gambling licence to lawfully target and supply to consumers in Great Britain. As Novig is not licensed in Great Britain, the advertisement would be prohibited from publication here, as it advertises unlawful gambling (a criminal offence under Section 330 of the Gambling Act 2005). The exception to this is where the service cannot be accessed by consumers in Great Britain, nor can they register / transact with the service; noting, however, the Government has recently closed its consultation on a proposal to ban the advertising and sponsorship of all unlicensed gambling, even where the service is inaccessible to British users – so this position is subject to change.

Would the ad breach the B/CAP code?

Assuming Novig had obtained a British gambling licence (as a ‘betting intermediary’), and their ad targeted British consumers, would the ASA have challenged it? Let’s take a closer look.

Causing offence

CAP Code 4.1 requires that marketing communications must not contain anything that is ‘likely to cause serious or widespread offence’ and CAP Code 4.9 states that marketing communications must not include gender stereotypes that are ‘likely to cause harm or serious or widespread offence’. Particular care must be therefore taken to avoid causing offence on grounds such as gender or by perpetuating harmful gender stereotypes (including the use of overtly sexual imagery that has little relevance to the product or service being promoted).

The ASA will consider: the impact of the ad as a whole, the medium in which the ad appeared, the audience and their likely response. The ASA has previously ruled that women should not be stereotyped as sexual objects and that advertisers should not use physical features to draw attention to unrelated products (of either men or women). For instance, a model wearing lingerie and posing provocatively with food held no relevance to a takeaway service; the ASA found that given there was no relevance, the ad had only sought to stereotype women and sexually objectify them. While Sydney Sweeney looks incredible in the advert, she is not famous for excelling at any of the sports she is modelling nor does her semi-naked appearance have any relevance to the service she is promoting.

In contrast, other prediction market advertisements use well-known figures like Eli Manning, LeBron James and Timothée Chalamet, with a focus on sports games and community. Nudity is not a common theme and holds no inherent relevance to trading or gambling. While there is scope to debate who the intended audience is supposed to be, the volume of viewers who have expressed their distaste suggests the ad is likely to cause serious offence to some people. Renowned female sports stars including English sprinter Amy Hunt, gymnast Gracie Kramer and British Olympic cyclist Sophie Capewell have all publicly criticised the campaign (with Hunt claiming the Novig ad is a barrier to women in sport).

The sexual nature of the advertisement is precisely what has attracted engagement and criticism. The nudity does form a central part of the focus of the ad, but there is also a prominent sports game theme. However, and in Novig’s hypothetical defence were this advert before the ASA, there is a stronger case for finding Sweeney has agency here than in similar rulings. She is not simply a model hired to pose, she is an equity partner who, according to Novig’s CEO, was “driving a lot of the visuals and the messaging.” She appears confident and in control throughout, which may bring this closer to cases like Calvin Klein Inc, where the ASA accepted that the woman depicted had agency over her portrayal.

Gambling specific rules

In terms of the gambling-specific provisions, the Novig ad may risk breaching CAP Code 16.3.8 which requires that marketing communications must not link gambling to ‘seduction, sexual success or enhanced attractiveness’. While the ad is undeniably provocative and uses sexualised imagery, it does not appear to suggest that using Novig will make consumers more attractive or sexually desirable. The imagery relates to the celebrity endorser rather than implying any connection between gambling and the viewer’s own sexual success. The ASA would need to find a link between the act of gambling and enhanced attractiveness, which is not obviously present here.

Code 16.3.12 states that gambling advertisements must not be of strong appeal to children or young persons. This may be relevant given Sweeney’s appearance in Madame Web (rated PG-13 in the US), a film likely to have attracted younger viewers. However, many of her other prominent roles, including Euphoria and The White Lotus, are aimed at adult audiences. On social media, her posts do not seem appropriate for or targeted at young children and according to Zaver, her primary audience group is between 18 and 25. That said, in order to feel comfortable that an advertisement featuring a celebrity does not have strong appeal to those under 18, any advertiser would need to conduct an assessment in line with the CAP strong appeal guidance, which would involve reviewing social media follower data and other relevant metrics.

Conclusion

In short, the ad would face significant hurdles in the UK. Without Novig holding the requisite British gambling licence, it would likely be prohibited outright as unlawful gambling advertising under section 330 of the Gambling Act 2005. Even with a licence, its sexualised imagery and limited relevance to the product would present substantial ASA compliance risks, primarily under CAP Code 4 (serious or widespread offence and perpetuating harmful gender stereotypes) and the requirement that sexual imagery must be relevant to the product advertised.

Prediction market and gambling operators looking to advertise in the UK should bear in mind the following:

• Licensing first: Ensure you hold the appropriate British gambling (or FCA) licence before advertising to consumers in Great Britain. Advertising gambling is unlawful if it requires a licence or registration under the Gambling Act and those arrangements are not in place; to advertise unlawful gambling in Great Britain is a criminal offence.
• Relevance matters: Any sexualised or provocative imagery must be relevant to the product. Using sexual content purely to attract attention, without a clear connection to the offering, is likely to breach CAP Code 4.1.
• Avoid stereotyping: Advertisements should not objectify or stereotype individuals, particularly women. The ASA has consistently upheld complaints where women are depicted as sexual objects without relevance to the product.
• Conduct a strong appeal assessment: When using celebrities, conduct a thorough assessment under CAP’s strong appeal guidance to ensure the advertisement does not have strong appeal to under-18s. This includes reviewing social media follower demographics and the celebrity’s broader media presence.
• Provocation is not a strategy: While controversial advertisements may generate attention and social media engagement, operators should be wary of ‘rage bait’ tactics. The short-term publicity gains are unlikely to outweigh the reputational and regulatory risks of an ASA ruling and further regulatory action from the Gambling Commission (noting LCCP SR 5.1.6 which requires operators to (i) undertake marketing in a socially responsible manner and (ii) comply with the CAP and BCAP codes).